Ravings from a Man in an Old White House

I’m sure you all remember how McCain fake-suspended his campaign so he could “help” pass a bailout package by dropping everything and leaving for Washington the next day. I’m sure you all also remember how it was announced before he got to Washington that there was a deal in place. McCain then proceeded to remain virtually silent at a meeting with the President and economic advisers. After House Republicans surprised many by saying there was in fact no deal, Democrats (including Harry Reid) mocked McCain for doing nothing and implied that he was somehow responsible for the deal going sour. … Continue Reading

The basic issues investigated for the “troopergate” scandal were whether Gov. Palin abused her office in trying to get her former brother-in-law fired as an Alaska State Trooper and whether she fired the Public Safety Commissioner Monegan (a cabinet member) for not firing Wooten, the former brother-in-law. I’m not done with the report yet, but it seems clear that Sarah Palin abused her office by trying to get him fired and not stopping her husband from using her office to try to get him fired. Generally, the Palins couched their desire to have Wooten fired as not wanting such … Continue Reading

I thought this was amusing:

MR. BRANCHFLOWER: Okay. Did he invite you to read the document to know exactly what it said?

MR. MONEGAN: I scanned it. But as I was scanning it, he was talking to me. So my attention span was split, so to speak. Being a guy, I can’t multitask that well.

MR. BRANCHFLOWER: I know the feeling.
Report, p. 17.

I almost posted last night that if the popular vote shifts a little bit more to Obama, West Virginia would become a battleground state. It’s squeezed between Pennsylvania and Virginia, two states that have been flooded with Obama ads and is not especially well off. By not posting it last night, I let Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight beat me to the punch. He posted today about a poll showing Obama up by eight in West Virginia. I don’t believe it any more than Silver does because it’s an American Research Group poll, which have been off by a lot, … Continue Reading

I don’t know who else remembers this, but much was made of American car makers’ “legacy debt” during the 2004 presidential election. That debt is what a company has to pay for former employees. Republicans argued that only they could help the Big Three (Daimler still owned Chrysler the, so it was really the Big Two). In the last four years, the Republican leadership has done nothing. GM closed at $4.76/share, and Ford closed at $2.08/share. Chrysler went private, so it’s harder to know what they’re up to, but reports are bad, and all three companies’ bonds are rated on … Continue Reading

These past few weeks have been bad for the stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, a weighted average of some of the biggest stocks, reached its all-time peak of 14,164.53 one year ago today, but today had its third largest point decline at 678.91 points and 7.33% of its value.

By the numbers:

• Wednesday’s close: 8,579.19
• Year-on-year change: -5,585.34
• Year-on-year percentage change: -39.4
• Drop since 1:30 EDT on 3 October, when the bailout passed: 2,094.89
• Last close below today: 21 May 2003
• Most recent percentage drop larger than today’s: 26 October 1987 (-8.04)
• Worst percentage drop ever: one week earlier, 19 October 1987 (-22.61)
• Worse point drops:

… Continue Reading

I think Barack has Colorado, which brings him to 273 and victory, and Nevada. I am close to being able to say he will win Ohio, but I do have some doubts about calling Ohio now. The polls look like they warrant it, and the polls make sense logically, but I want another few days to a week to get more polling in. It would make me a little uncomfortable to call it before Missouri and Nevada, especially when I think Missouri will likely go to McCain, but Ohio has been in economic trouble for essentially all of the Bush … Continue Reading

The presidential election will create at least one vacancy in the Senate. If Obama wins, the Democratic governors of Illinois and Delaware will appoint Democratic successors. I would expect both men to resign their seats to give their replacements additional seniority. The people elected in November will not be sworn in until 6 January. Obama and Biden’s replacements could be sworn in any time after being appointed. Obama and Biden would also want to leave so they could work on the transition and inaugural details, for which they would only have two-and-a-half months. Most importantly, there is word that there … Continue Reading

Am I crazy for thinking the presidential election is basically over?

Update
Joe Scarborough appeared on The Colbert Report and said that he thinks there is nothing McCain can do to win. That’s one vote no, then.

I am ambivalent toward the Electoral College. One of the things that I don’t like about it is the way it exaggerates victory. This has not been a huge factor in the last two elections. In 2004, Bush won 50.3% of the popular vote and 53.2% of the electoral vote. In 2000, it was 47.9% and 50.3% (yeah, yeah, it wasn’t a victory). Interestingly, had Gore won, it would have been 48.4% and 54.5%, which is a fairly significantly larger difference, but the results have nothing on 1996. Clinton won 49.2% of the popular vote by 70.4% of the electoral … Continue Reading