Ravings from a Man in an Old White House

Blawgs (law-related weblogs) are not generally great places to look for tips on romance. The much-read conservative blawg The Volokh Conspiracy discusses an economic analysis of long-distance relationships. For some reason it reminds me of an article I read in college called something like “Looking for Love When There is No One on Your Right.” That article was about the difficulties ultra-conservatives have finding love matches.

I left work around 7:00 p.m. Before I did leave, though, I started my car (which was on the second and middle floor of a parking garage) from the 7th floor of my building; it worked. I could even hear the engine starting. Awesome.

The probability that I will finish Radical Center has significantly decreased because I can’t find it. The last I remember seeing it is Friday night. Maybe Vicki hid it.

I voted for four winners in contested elections this time: Attorney General Madigan, Comptroller Hynes, “Yes” to retain Judge Jorgenson, and “Yes” for a Forest Preserve District bond issue. I picked the losers in the other 3 statewide elections (all Republicans), for County Board, and US Representative (the latter both Democrats). I’ll try harder next year.

My congressional predictions were close, but I may have underestimated the strength of the Democratic wave this year. I guessed Democrats would gain 4-5 seats in the Senate. I did figure that If I was wrong, then they would gain more. If Burns can hold on (I doubt it), my prediction will come true. It looks now as though the Virginia and Montana races will be Democratic pick-ups.

I predicted 20-25 seats would go blue this year. At this point, there are 26 new Democratic seats and 18 undecided races. A few more are going to fall. A few weeks ago, I was looking at 25-30, but I got gun-shy and scaled back.

I also missed on a particular congressional candidate: Tammy Duckworth. I thought she would win; she didn’t. It also looks like my prediction that Senator Burns would win is going to turn out wrong. Oh well.

Sen. Joseph Lieberman was defeated in the Democratic primary this year by Ned Lamont due to his hawkish position on the war. Instead of giving up, Lieberman is running for re-election as an independent. With the Democrats split, the Republican in the race, Alan Schlesinger should be on the verge of winning a plurality, right? Not so much. He’s not even cracking 10%. Republican support, as well as some Democratic and independent support, is going to Lieberman. If the Democrats miss taking the House of Representatives, it could be because of this race, according to an AP story. Three vulnerable House Republicans (Christopher Shays, Nancy Johnson, and Rob Simmons) could end up owing their seats to, get this, Republican turnout for a Democrat running as an independent.

Elections seem to get weirder and weirder every election cycle.

The Governor has led the Treasurer by as many as 19 points. A new Mason-Dixon Poll puts the lead at 4%: 44-40. She could actually win. Light Republican turnout and heavy Democratic turnout could hurt her. Then again, Republicans may turn out just to knock off an incumbent they can’t stand, and Democrats may decide not to mark a choice for governor as they fill in their ballots.

Turnout will probably not be a factor in the race to succeed Rep. Henry Hyde (R) in the sixth congressional district. If the Zogby/Reuters poll is to be believed. Tammy Duckworth is trouncing Sen. Peter Roskam 54-40%. If all the undecideds break his way and the lead is at the high side of the margin of error, then high Republican turnout won’t matter.

I’d like to see the numbers in Rep. Melissa Bean’s race against David McSweeny. If anyone sees a link, comment with it below.